01 Sep 2013 L’any de la gran desconnexió

Egged on by the mood on the street and faced with intransigence from Madrid, President Mas called an election on the 25th November 2012. The election marked a historic turning point in the CiU federation, which for the first time put forward a manifesto which suggested that Catalonia should be an independent state in its own right. When Artur Mas was originally sworn in as president in 2010, he had spoken of the need for a ‘national transition’, but his vision was proposed without reference to a particular timetable or deadline.

The outcome of the elections produced a complicated scenario that almost no one had anticipated: the parties in favour of holding a referendum obtained far more MPs than the opposition, while Mas lost twelve seats. As a result, his leadership of a process of historical significance was seriously affected. It’s ironic that the first separatist president of present-day Catalonia is leading a party which was punished by the voters just one month after having been applauded during Catalonia’s National Day, which had set everything in motion in the first place. My hypothesis, based on the shuffling of vote between the various parties on offer, is not that Mas was rejected punished for having taken up the cause. On the contrary, he was punished for other reasons, such as budget cuts, having led a poor campaign, uncertainties as to political alliances or the grave attacks on Mas’ honour, spread by a part of the Madrid press. Simultaneously, the results of the elections of the 25th November indicate that there are fractures within Catalonia’s map of centrist parties (Convergència and socialists), while the small and medium-sized groups are gaining ground.

Finally, thanks to an agreement with ERC, the winners of the elections were able to form a minority government, amid a climate of growing social unrest and the challenges associated with running an administration while lacking the necessary resources. The key to the agreement between CiU and ERC was Mas’ commitment to holding a referendum on Catalonia’s future. This is to take place in 2014, unless certain exceptional circumstances should arise. It is worth noting that, in recent elections, the Republicans were able to beat the socialists to second place, something that has not occurred since 1980.

The first step on the road to Catalonia’s national transition took place on the 23rd January this year. Parliament voted in favour (with the backing of 85 MPs out of a total 135) of a, ‘Declaration of sovereignty and the people of Catalonia’s right to decide’, which defines our solemnly people as, ‘sovereign political and legal subjects’. This expression clashes head on with the Spanish Constitution of 1978, according to which there is only one ‘Spanish people’ and ‘Spanish nation, the common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards’. It is a rupture with Spanish legality that is unprecedented since the return of democracy, which aims to bring to the foreground the existence of a Catalan demos, systematically denied by the Spanish establishment. The mere mention of the Catalan people as a political entity automatically puts one outside of the realm of the Spanish Constitution. It challenges the very foundations of the edifice we inhabit. Accordingly, on May 8th, the Constitutional Court decided to provisionally suspend the Parliament of Catalonia’s declaration of sovereignty thanks to an appeal from the Spanish government. The suspension seeks to block the sovereignty process from the start and make one think that the Spanish authorities are determined to prohibit any move aimed at holding a referendum in which the Catalans have the last word on their own future.

We are now in an uncertain situation, in which the ball is in the court of our elected representatives. There is a feeling that every gesture and every word require enormous amounts of energy. Meanwhile, in everything related to sovereignty, there is a growing tendency to discuss everyday peripheral matters which cover up the key issues in this context.

One year ago, the optimism of an active and significant part of Catalan society generated an impressive wave of democratic feeling. For many months now, the political parties have been trying this energy into a controlled (and if possible agreed) rupture with Spain. The objective appears to be impossible, especially since, aside from having to fight against powerful adversaries, the sovereign cause is subject to serious internal weaknesses and lacks important external allies.

In my opinion, the main problems facing the pro-independence political parties and politicians is the lack of unity, an excess of jostling for position, the toxic effects of mistrust and a worrying mix of naivety and amateurism. Perhaps I am judging them too harshly, but the situation does not call for much optimism, aside from congratulating Mas for his courage and Junqueras for his aptitude. They face the formal and de facto powers which the Spanish state will use without hesitation: all manner of legal, diplomatic and media mechanisms, together with foul-play, which is particularly when it comes to the person of the president of Catalonia. When Spanish unity is called into question, it appears as if the separation of power and the presumption of innocence are principles which become relative.

Is politics able to bring about a democratic consultation (whether in accordance with Spanish law or not) in a binding and clear way, in which the Catalans are able to choose to remain in Spain or to leave peacefully? For now this is the key question. The credibility of the parties and the pro-independence leaders (Mas in particular) depend on the answer. If, one way or another, the question isn’t put to the Catalan people within a reasonable timeframe, no one will be able to understand it. The loss of credibility, ridicule and frustration would be enormous.

Civil society has a key role in this process, which it is failing to carry out. In my opinion, leaving aside certain negative impulses that undermine one’s enthusiasm, the obsession of most organizations and pro-independence groups with bringing forward the date of the referendum as much as possible is a grave error. This is for three reasons: a) control over political the timetable is the hardest part and should be based on a combination of refined information and intuition, rather than good intentions; b) achieving a comfortable victory in favour of an independent state requires taking the time needed to spread the message to the numerous sectors of society which are currently resistant to Catalan independence; c) constant pressure on the government and political parties for them to call an immediate referendum is not the best way to help our representatives, especially when one considers that the Spanish authorities are also applying pressure in the opposite direction and this creates turmoil that can lead to confusion.

Instead of adopting as their slogan the phrase ‘We’re in a hurry’ and putting it into practice on a daily basis, that sector of civil society which participates in the independence process should focus all their efforts, actions and words on increasing the number of voters in favour of secession for the day that we are called to choose. In spite of the growth in pro-independence feeling among the electorate and its influence in Parliament, anyone who cares to analyse the opinion polls which have been carried out, or who is familiar with Catalonia’s towns and villages, will know that people who want their own state are yet to be in a socially hegemonic position. Aside from those who openly declare themselves to be in favour of Spanish unity (of whichever political hue they may be), there are thousands of Catalans who are unable to decide between the various territorial options which are available or who have, as yet, stayed out of such debates. The pro-independence movement has yet to carry out the mammoth educational task among social sectors located outside of the pro-Catalan heartland. This may be due to an excess of optimism or the apathy which hampering actions by those who are already convinced. While some organizations have begun to organize events in areas where sovereignty is less popular (such as the area around Barcelona), in order to win a referendum the critical mass of supporters of a Catalan state will need to be beefed up substantially. Sometimes the pro-independence groups are not sufficiently aware of the resources available to the powers-that-be who wish to retain the status quo and the various tricks they have up their sleeve.

Twelve months after the outbreak of the pro-sovereignty movement, three things are apparent: a significant and highly active part of Catalan society has psychologically disengaged itself from Spain and will not be turning back; the Spain of autonomous regions is rapidly becoming unravelled, both from inside and outside of Catalonia, subject as it is to insurmountable economic, political, social and cultural contradictions; those who oppose an independent Catalonia have no credible alternative to offer that can seriously compete with the pro-independence project and thereby support their arguments which are based on fear, coercion and the threat of disaster. This third factor (together with the centralist policies promoted by the PP and PSOE) provides a great deal of support for the creation of a Catalan state and generates many followers. The process is not yet over. There is more to be said. We are living in exhilarating, yet difficult times in which we are all called upon to stop being mere spectators, in order that one day we can say to our grandchildren that we were able to exchange our disappointments for responsibility and a challenge.